Lucknow. Electoral activism has now gained momentum in Uttar Pradesh. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is visiting the districts and making direct communication with the public. Leaders of opposition parties have also started working on their strategy to counter the ruling BJP government. At present, after Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the most focus of opposition leaders is on Akhilesh Yadav. In all election surveys, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is being given the number three position after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP). Congress is being told as the weakest national party in every election survey. In these election estimates, even though BSP is being described as the number three party in the state, BSP supremo Mayawati’s importance in the UP elections has not diminished. Many believe that those who rejected Mayawati in these elections are in great confusion. Mayawati can still prove to be a dark horse in these elections. Recently, he had also said with full confidence that those who leave the party go alone. Naturally, his confidence was towards his cadre. The ongoing tussle between Shivpal Singh vs Akhilesh Yadav will reach such a point from where Mayawati’s will be twelve. Mayawati wants Muslim votes in UP. She is insisting on maintaining the old base of Dalit and Brahmin votes in the BSP. In such a situation, the kind of electoral equations being created in UP, BSP can surprise everyone. By making these elections triangular, she wants to show Mayawati defeating the SP and competing with the BJP.
It is worth noting that in various election surveys conducted in the state, BJP has been told to get 41 to 44 percent of the votes in UP. While 32 per cent votes have been claimed in SP’s account, 15 per cent in BSP’s account, 6 per cent for Congress and 6 per cent in others’ account. In terms of seats, BJP has claimed maximum 241 to 249 seats and SP’s share of 130 to 138 seats has been claimed on the basis of election survey. The BSP may be reduced to between 15 and 19 seats and the Congress between 3 and 7 seats, it has also been said. Similar claims have been made in several other election surveys. In every election survey, it has been told that the SP will have a direct contest with the BJP. BSP has not been given importance in the electoral battle. This is certainly not a good sign for Mayawati’s party. Mayawati considers such election survey to be harmful for her party. According to leaders close to Mayawati, the voters of BSP do not participate in the election survey and they keep silent and surprise in the elections. That is why Behenji has demanded a ban on the election survey. One of Mayawati’s intentions is that the BSP, not the SP, should become the party to challenge the BJP on every seat in the state. And the state elections were seen to be between BJP and BSP only.
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According to Mahendra Pandey, who has contested two elections on BSP ticket, looking at the results of the last assembly and Lok Sabha elections, it is proved that BSP is after BJP in terms of getting votes. BSP’s vote share has remained the same even in the midst of big waves. In the 2017 elections, the BSP got the highest 22.7 percent votes after the BJP. Whereas SP got 21.8 percent votes in that election. Similarly, in the Lok Sabha elections held in the year 2019, BSP had won ten Lok Sabha seats with 19.26 percent votes. Whereas SP got 17.96 percent votes in this election and could win only five seats. Even looking at the old figures, the vote share of the BSP in the 2012 assembly elections was slightly above 25 per cent. This was 5 per cent more than the party’s 30 per cent votes polled in the 2007 elections. However, the difference of five per cent could not prove how the SP got 224 seats with such a landslide victory. The number of seats that the BSP got came down from 126 to 80. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the party got 27 per cent votes and 20 seats. It is to be seen that in terms of vote share, BSP is consistently performing similarly. Mahendra believes that Akhilesh Yadav’s ongoing dispute with Shivpal Singh Yadav, coupled with the anti-incumbency factor created against the ruling party, may bring a similar wave in favor of Mayawati’s social engineering which will bring the BSP closer to power. will be successful in delivering.
UP politics expert and senior journalist Virendra Bhatt does not deny this claim of Mahendra Pandey. He says that BSP will definitely get the benefit of SP’s family dispute. At present, Akhilesh Yadav is engaged in a campaign to connect various small political parties with him, but he is not taking them with him even after making a promise to his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav. Shivpal Singh Yadav is very angry with this behavior of Akhilesh. Virendra says that Akhilesh is looking strong now, but he is certainly not able to form a social alliance like his father. Making development an election issue has had a limited effect in a society entrenched in caste ties. The alliance that Akhilesh is making is more electoral less caste.
The work done by the Yogi government for the development of UP is getting appreciation from the public. In such a situation, it is very difficult for the SP to integrate the scattered votes from the BJP with itself. Congress is still unable to present a strong candidate for power. In such a situation, BSP is also an option for the people of UP. BSP chief Mayawati is restless to capture the power of UP. To capture power, he has decided to contest elections alone. Along with this, she is engaged in connecting the Brahmin community and she has prepared a different strategy to win the reserve seats, giving more chances to the youth in these elections. Mayawati is confident that the alliance of UP Brahmin, Dalit and Muslim society will prove beneficial for the BSP. On the basis of this vote bank, Mayawati has left her party and gone to other parties, regardless of the party MLAs, she has walked her many paths with great gusto. Due to which the challenge of BSP cannot be ignored now. Not only this, Mayawati can be seen beating the SP and competing with the BJP because her supporters voter is still with her and it would be a mistake to dismiss Mayawati in UP politics while this voter is still there.