There is a big noise that ministers are resigning from Yogi Adityanath’s government in Uttar Pradesh and MLAs are leaving the party. Two ministers resigned in two days and four MLAs are also reported to have left the party. It is being said that more ministers or MLAs can leave the party now. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar said that BJP’s 13 MLAs will go to SP. A SP leader said that if Akhilesh Yadav opens the door of the party, then two hundred BJP MLAs will join the SP. The question is whether BJP MLAs, What is the inevitable consequence of ministers leaving the party that BJP will lose and SP will win?,
Assembly elections were held in West Bengal in March-April last year. The stampede that broke out in the Trinamool Congress before that election, The stampede in Uttar Pradesh is nothing compared to it. swami prasad maurya is a very strong leader but in uttar pradesh he is not a leader of that status, The position in which the leader is West Bengal Suvendu Adhikari. The world saw the performance of Suvendu Adhikari as he defeated Mamta Banerjee in Nandigram seat. Mamta Banerjee’s party won more seats in this election than before but she too could not defeat Suvendu Adhikari. On the other hand Swami Prasad Maurya seems to be worrying about himself and his son’s seat.
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Suvendu Adhikari was not the only leader. About a dozen MLAs of Trinamool Congress had switched sides. MPs also openly opposed the party and supported the BJP. Despite this, the result is known to all. However, this does not mean that Uttar Pradesh will also get the same result as West Bengal. But this factor has to be considered keeping in mind. It must also be noted that in West Bengal, the BJP performed very well. It was a party of three MLAs but in the last year’s election, its 77 MLA won and 38 Percentage vote. However, this did not happen just because many Trinamool leaders had switched to the BJP., Rather, it happened because the polarization had benefited the BJP due to the population structure there.
If such communal polarization happens in Uttar Pradesh, then the BJP will surely benefit. But if communal polarization doesn’t happen and social engineering works, In which the unity of other backward castes is formed with the Muslim and Yadav equation, then the SP will benefit. In this context, the social and caste background of Swami Prasad Maurya or Dara Singh Chauhan and the leaders who left the BJP with them is important. Because of these leaders, the social engineering of BJP can fail. Keep in mind that BJP is doing successful politics by connecting non-Yadav backwards and non-Jatav Dalits with its upper caste vote bank. But this time the equation may be broken.